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Prediction for CME (2025-11-04T22:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-04T22:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42418/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2, with a notably irregular diffuse leading edge. The source is an M1.7 flare from AR 14272 (N25E36) peaking at 2025-11-04T22:44Z observed in GOES SUVI 131. Also observed as field line breaking, dimming, and small post eruptive arcades in GOES SUVI 171/195/284/304 with some loose filament ejecta in GOES SUVI 304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-07T04:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-07T03:17Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 7.0 - 9.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42437/1
Model Inputs:
2025-11-04T22:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-36.0, Lat.=29.0, Speed=639.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2025-11-05T04:31Z
2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-37.0, Lat.=9.0, Speed=1123.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2025-11-05T13:56Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-07T03:17Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =21.8 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.7
(kp)90=7
(kp)180=9

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-05T19:08Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-06T23:01Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-06T23:08Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-07T00:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 35.90 hour(s)
Difference: 1.52 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) on 2025-11-05T16:54Z

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